“Our base case is that Vodafone Idea will stay in the game,” Subramanian told CNBC-TV18. “But I don’t see it thriving meaningfully, unless there’s substantial relief,” he said.
Vodafone Idea’s survival still hinges on timely support from the government. The company faces an adjusted gross revenue (AGR) payment of around ₹16,500 crore due by March 2026—an amount it cannot cover through internal cash flows alone. While there’s talk of relief measures, such as extending payment timelines or converting compound interest to simple interest, raising fresh debt will remain a challenge unless clarity emerges soon.
Even if Vodafone survives, it won’t be a growth story. Its network investments are likely to stay constrained, especially compared to competitors who are far ahead in 4G and 5G rollout. There is also a serious risk of further equity dilution for shareholders if more debt is converted into equity to ease the company’s debt burden.
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“It may still not be the best long term investment from an equity holders perspective. There could be stock price pops, especially if you know there is some finalisation or there is some clarity on the release measures,” he added.
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Vodafone Idea has a market capitalisation of around ₹76,490 crore, with its shares declining nearly 59% over the past year. In contrast, Bharti Airtel’s market capitalisation stands at ₹11,15,959 crore, and its stock has gained nearly 39% during the same period.
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