Tariff tussle, China’s curbs, India’s widening gender gap

India and the US held bilateral talks to achieve a trade deal recently, while China’s decision to curb the export of rare earth magnets has hit India’s automobile industry. Meanwhile, India has slipped two ranks on the Global Gender Gap Index.

Tariff tussle

India and the US have been negotiating hard on achieving a trade deal, with the latter seeking more market access in sensitive sectors such as dairy, agriculture, digital and medical services, Mint reported. New Delhi, however, has pushed back, demanding a balanced agreement between the two countries. The bilateral talks took place from 4 June to 10 June. India does levy high tariffs on US products in these sectors and has concerns over unregulated competition and social sensitivities around animal feeding practices by the US.

China’s play

China has triggered a big worry around the world by putting in place a stringent licensing procedure for the export of rare earth magnets—processed from rare earth elements (REEs). Even as India has the third-largest REE reserves at around 6.9 million tonnes, they are largely unexploited. Like several other countries, India relies heavily on imports from China to meet its need for rare earth elements. Since rare earth magnets are crucial for the production of automobiles, the segment is particularly hit.

An area chart showing how much rare earth element India imports from different countries. Import from China dominates, taking up three-fourths of India's total import share

Robust activity

122.7 million: That’s the number of e-way bills raised by businesses and traders for shipping goods within and across states in May. This was up 19% year-on-year, suggesting brisk economic activity in the country. However, a likely driver of robust e-way bill generation could also be advance dispatches in anticipation of the Goods and Services (GST) Council meeting, Mint reported, quoting experts. The GST collections data released earlier also pointed to robust activity in the country, with the May collections rising 16.4% year-on-year to ₹2 trillion.

Easing inflation

India’s retail inflation eased further to 2.8% in May from 3.2% the previous month due to the statistical effect of a favourable base as well as continued easing in food inflation. This is the lowest inflation print in over six years, supporting the sharper-than-expected cut of 50 basis points by the Reserve Bank of India last week.

While the headline inflation has now been below the medium-term aim of 4% for the fourth consecutive month, core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, remains above 4%.

This column chart shows the year-on-year change in retail inflation over the past year. Notably, India's inflation has seen a consistent decline for the last seven months, reaching a six-year low in May 2025.

Migrant mayhem

Under US President Donald Trump, crackdowns on migrants, including those who have legal rights to stay, have increased dramatically. According to a howindialives.com analysis, this could potentially hurt the Indian-origin population, which is estimated to be around 3.4 million as of 2023, as per the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Over the years, Indians have taken up a large share and, even a dominant one, in main visas for non-immigrants for tourism, studies, work, and to visit dependents. Stringent visa rules could limit access for Indians.

The line chart shows a rising trend in the share of non-immigrant visas issued by the US to Indian citizens for various purposes over the years, including tourism, studies, work, and visiting dependents. In the 2022-23, Indians constituted a significant majority of certain visa types, accounting for 86% of H-4 visas (for dependents of foreign workers), 78% of H1-B visas (work visas), and 29% of student visas.

Fund hunt

₹2.5 trillion: That’s the amount Adani Group needs to raise over the next five years to meet its capital expenditure plan and debt obligations, Mint reported. The Adani Group plans to invest ₹1.3–1.7 trillion annually over the next five years and has about ₹1.6 trillion in debt maturities between 2025-26 and 2029-30. While a majority of these will be met through cash the group generates, some additional fund infusion will be needed to meet the capex goals, as well as servicing of its debt.

Tech’s future

A recent artificial intelligence (AI) report by veteran tech analyst Mary Meeker has shed light on the future of the tech industry. India, while not covered extensively in the report, will be impacted by these shifts. OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which kick-started the current interest in AI, saw an unprecedented level of growth, reaching 100 million users in just two months. India played a key role in it and currently accounts for 13.5% of global ChatGPT mobile app users, compared to the US’ 8.9%.

This bar chart shows the country-wise distribution of ChatGPT's global mobile app users, with India holding the largest share at 13.5%.

Gaping gap

The table shows how countries performed on the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Index. The data shows the ranking and score of the country, with India at 131 rank with a score of 0.6444

India has been ranked 131 out of 148 countries on the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index for 2025. This is a slight deterioration from last year, when India was ranked 129. The UK, on the other hand, has made its way to the top five by jumping 10 ranks.

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