Tensions in the Middle East have erupted into open conflict after the United States launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, — prompting Tehran to threaten a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil corridor.
Just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that American warplanes had bombed three nuclear sites inside Iran — Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan — Brigadier General Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy, repotedly issued a stark warning: “The Strait of Hormuz will be closed within a few hours.”
This marks the first direct U.S. military strike on Iranian territory since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump called the mission “a spectacular military success,” adding that Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities had been “completely and totally obliterated.”
The escalation comes amid rising tensions following Israel’s ongoing military operations against Iran-linked targets and a deadly regional standoff. Trump had previously said he would take up to two weeks to decide on U.S. involvement — that decision, it seems, has now been made.
The Strait of Hormuz handles around 20 million barrels of crude oil per day — nearly one-fifth of global daily consumption. A closure would cripple oil exports from key Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. While some alternate pipelines exist, they can only handle a small share — roughly 2.6 million barrels per day.
Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, vital to Asia and Europe, would also be disrupted.
Brent crude has jumped past $90 per barrel, while WTI climbed above $87. Analysts warn that a prolonged shutdown could push prices to $120–$150, triggering major volatility in global financial markets.
A global oil shock would ripple across economies already grappling with inflation. Energy costs would spike, supply chains would slow, and shipping insurers are already pricing in new war-risk premiums. Economists warn a sustained disruption could slash global GDP by 1–2%, raising the risk of a worldwide recession.
How worried should India be?
India, which imports 90% of its crude — with over 40% coming through Hormuz — is especially vulnerable. A cut-off would affect refinery operations, trade balances, and drive inflation through soaring fuel prices. The rupee would likely come under pressure, and the government may be forced to dip into its 74-day oil reserves.
