60% Chance A Depression Forms Off Southeast Coast
The National Hurricane Center continues to track possible tropical or subtropical development this weekend or early next week from near Florida to off the Southeast coast. Regardless of whether or not that happens, stormy weather will impact areas from Florida to southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas.
Timing And Development Chances
The first step in any development chance is for low pressure to spin up in association with a dissipating front over water off the Southeast coast. If that happens and the low becomes better defined, then a subtropical or tropical depression could form this weekend into early next week.
Atmospheric conditions are only marginally conducive, so only slow development of a subtropical or tropical depression is possible, the National Hurricane Center says. We don’t expect any system to become well-organized or strong if development did occur.
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If this system somehow strengthened into a tropical storm, it would be named Chantal.
(MORE: 5 Ways Tropical Storms Can Form)
Tropical Development Potential
Impacts Are Expected, Regardless
The large-scale weather pattern in association with this setup will allow showers and storms and gusty winds to impact Florida, southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas over the next several days. Much of the stormy weather will be focused on Florida initially, including Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach and Miami, but then it will spread to the Southeast coast over the weekend.
These thunderstorms will come in several rounds or bands and could be more persistent than the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms. As a result, localized flash flooding is possible in spots.
The beach forecast this holiday weekend will be touch and go, so be sure to have a plan B and a way to shelter from lightning.
Rip currents will also be possible over the holiday weekend along the Southeast coast. Take note of flags warning about this danger at beaches and stay out of the water if the flags are red.
(MORE: What Flags Mean For Ocean Conditions At Beaches)
Rainfall Forecast
Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.
