Shares of Inox Wind Ltd, one of the only two wind-EPC suppliers in India, received a target upgrade by Nuvama Institutional Equities, following its March quarter results. The Suzlon Energy Ltd peer posted a modest execution in Q4FY25 at 236MW against an estimate of 281MW. But the subdued revenue at Rs 1,270 crore was offset by higher operating profit margin (OPM) of 19.9 per cent on a product-heavy mix driving an in-line Ebitda.
Nuvama estimates Inox Wind stock at 24.4 times based on FY27 EPS against Suzlon Energy’s 31.8 times.
Nuvama said Inox Wind’s Q4 profit after tax at Rs 190-odd crore was in line with estimate driven by a robust OPM and while order inflow (OI) is soft at 153MW, taking order book to 3.2GW, execution over 24 months.
FY26E and FY27E execution guidance was retained a 1.2GW and 2GW.
“Inox Wind remains a key player in the C&I segment and benefits from a duopolistic market in wind EPC+WTG. Order book of 3.2GW (execution over 24 months) lends revenue visibility. We are tweaking FY26–27E, cutting realisation/MW, factoring in lower EPC execution, edging up margin, and baking in amalgamation-related EPS dilution, yielding a target of Rs 236 (from Rs 223) at 30 times FY27E WTG EPS + DCF of O&M,” Nuvama said.
It retained ‘Buy’ on the stock.
Inox Wind, Nuvama said, delivered a strong execution performance in Q4FY25, commissioning 236MW (up 83 per cent YoY), though at a lower realisation per MW, resulting in revenue of Rs 1,270 crore.
Full-year FY25 execution stood at 705MW, falling short of the management’s guidance of 800MW. Despite this, the company maintained its execution targets for FY26E and FY27E.
Nuvama forecast execution of 1,200MW in FY26E and 2,000MW in FY27E (revised up from 1.2GW and 1.8GW, respectively). Order inflows were relatively weak at 153MW, bringing the order book (OB) to 3.2GW, which provides visibility for revenue over the next 24 months, it said.
Meanwhile, Inox Wind recently received an NCLT approval for amalgamation of Inox Wind Energy Limited and Inox Wind Limited. The merger would lead to an increase in share count by 25 per cent, diluting EPS.
“The merger benefits Inox Wind by leading to a reduction of liabilities (NCRPS of Rs 2,000 crore), which was previously a negative value in our SoTP,” it said.
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