Polish presidential race too close to call – what we know so far
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The Polish presidential race is too close to call, with two exit polls showing the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, very marginally ahead of the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki.
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The polls show government-aligned Trzaskowski leading 50.3% to 49.7% (Ipsos) and 50.17% to 49.83% (OGB), with the 2% margin of error (21:00 and 21:01).
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Trzaskowski declared himself a winner (21:02) as he called it a “special moment” in Polish history and pledged to push ahead with reforms (21:16).
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But Nawrocki, the opposition candidate, did not concede in his first speech, claiming he could still win the race as the results get counted overnight (21:21), a view also expressed by the Law and Justice leader, Jarosław Kaczyński (21:26).
Key events
Former Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski (1995-2005) also strikes a cautious note in his first comments saying he would urge candidates to wait for the official results, as it’s too close to call.
He says Poland is more divided than ever, as both leading parties have pursed a polarising agenda for the last two decades.
He says he hopes to see the new president make some gestures to unite the country, with a cross-party office to support him in his function.
First reactions – in pictures
Here is our first story from Warsaw, from Shaun Walker and I if you want to catch up on the basic facts:
A senior Ipsos executive, Joanna Skrzyńska, tells TVN24 that if this projected result remains so close when the late poll drops at 11pm local time, it will in effect remain too close to call.
We may have to wait for the official results tomorrow morning before confidently declaring who has won it, she adds.
Get some snacks, we’re in for a long ride.
Exit poll: 70,000-100,000 votes’ difference between candidates
If you’re wondering just how tight this election is, the two exit polls say it is between 70,000 and 100,000 votes.
In a country of 37 million, with 28.3 million eligible voters.
Wow.
Before the exit polls dropped, I told you about all the speculations on turnout.
For what it’s worth, the Ipsos exit poll says it will end up being 72.8%, which would be the highest turnout for a presidential election ever (beating 68.23% in 1995).
A quick summary of all we know so far is at the top of this blog.
A late poll – updated with partial results from some polling stations – is expected at about 11pm local time, so in just under 90 minutes.
Polish presidential race too close to call – what we know so far
-
The Polish presidential race is too close to call, with two exit polls showing the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, very marginally ahead of the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki.
-
The polls show government-aligned Trzaskowski leading 50.3% to 49.7% (Ipsos) and 50.17% to 49.83% (OGB), with the 2% margin of error (21:00 and 21:01).
-
Trzaskowski declared himself a winner (21:02) as he called it a “special moment” in Polish history and pledged to push ahead with reforms (21:16).
-
But Nawrocki, the opposition candidate, did not concede in his first speech, claiming he could still win the race as the results get counted overnight (21:21), a view also expressed by the Law and Justice leader, Jarosław Kaczyński (21:26).
Jakub Krupa
This will be a very long night.
There is definitely no appetite to concede just yet.
Speaking after Nawrocki, the Law and Justice (PiS) party leader and former prime minister, Jarosław Kaczyński, said he was confident “this night … we will win this election”.
He hopes to see the candidates swap when the late poll about 11pm local time gets published. Let’s see.
The crowd at the party’s HQ is chanting: “We’ve won.”
“Yes, we have won. We have won, because we are right, because we speak the truth about Poland, about its future, about its present, and about all that is wrong with our country today,” he responds.
He then talks of what he sees as “the Niagara of lies” hitting Nawrocki’s campaign from mainstream media.
Nawrocki does not concede in first reaction
But Nawrocki doesn’t seem to be that keen to concede just yet.
He says he remains confident his team will be victorious at the end of the night and block what he says is Donald Tusk’s attempt to “close the system” with control over both the government and the presidency.
As he thanked his supporters, Nawrocki also further attacked his political rivals for “taking money away from us, unleashing the institutions of the Polish state on us, lying”.
He also says it was a success to “unite the patriotic camp in Poland, the camp of people who want a normal Poland, without illegal immigrants”.
In his speech, Trzaskowski says:
“This is a special moment in the history of Poland. I am convinced that this will allow us to move forward like a torpedo and focus primarily on the future.”
He pledges to “unite, build, and be the president of all Polish women and men”.
Jakub Krupa
Look, I’m sorry to be the boring and responsible guy, but for all we know, this is WELL within the margin of error for both polls and technically remains too close to call.
As explained earlier, they said it was +/- 2% for each candidate, so even 52:48 would effectively be too close to call.
Trzaskowski seems to be very confident, though, as he continues his victory speech with long thanks for his wife, kids, family, and his staff.
He says this result will allow Poland to push ahead with reforms, as he promises to bring the two halves of the country together.
I hate how this phrase gets used in this context, but given how close the race seems to be … it really is Poles apart!
Rafał Trzaskowski: “we’ve won!”
Despite the absolutely minimal projected margin of victory in the exit poll, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski declares himself the winner.
“We’ve won!”, he starts his speech in Warsaw.
Second exit poll: too close to call
Second exit poll – OGB for Republika – backs this.
It’s too close to call.
Rafał Trzaskowski 50.17%
Karol Nawrocki 49.83%
That’s about 70,000 votes. In a country of 37 million.
Exit poll: Polish presidential election too close to call
Too close to call is the verdict.
Rafał Trzaskowski 50.3%
Karol Nawrocki 49.7%
That’s Ipsos for TVP, TVN and Polsat.
