Key events
“Since I live not far from Leeds,” says John Starbuck, “I always check those weather prospects in each day’s Guardian. I see the forecast is 15-20C and 85% rain. There’s also a bit of a breeze about but the skies are pretty grey, which will probably make catching rather difficult, especially at such a poor sight ground as Headingley.”
That last point is a really important one, because the catching in this match hasn’t been great, and India need 10 wickets. That’ll be hard enough, never mind if drops leave them needing 12 0r 13.
Talking of Fleetwood Mac, a hypothesis: they are the only thing in the world that no one in the world hates.
Say what you want about Bazball, but that we’re even having a conversation about England winning this tells us the extent to which they’ve changed the game. I was mainly joking when I talked about Bazball being a way of life, but committing to attacking options is a serious piece of advice that’s worth remembering on a daily. In the words of Fleetwood Mac, play the way you’re feeling.
I said earlier that Bumrah getting it done feels like the likeliest outcome, but I do quite fancy England. The way they play, they’ve enough time to get the runs without taking risks, and India’s back-up quicks will not frighten them. If we assume Bumrah will be bowling spells of four or five overs, that’s not that many to survive while making hay the rest of the time.
Email! “The Beeb is even more pessimistic,” laments Graham O’Reilly. “Showers till 4pm. Boo!”
My festival experiences tell me that is the last place to look. I think we’re going to be OK.
They say that at Headingley, you look up, not down, but that’s not foolproof. Though it’s overcast, it’s also blustery, which suggests there’ll not be much swing about. However the earlier clement weather should mean the pitch is crumbly, offering uneven bounce. Athers reckons that’s best exploited by a hit-the-deck bowler like Prasidh Krishna, rather than skiddier ones like Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj, and I understand the theory. But it’s hard to see anyone other than Bumrah – and Ravindra Jadeja – making the difference today. I’m not sure we’ll see Kuldeep Yadav sitting at the side in the next match.
There’s another huge contest going on today: Met Office v Weather Underground.
Underground Ultras for ever.
Preamble
Good morning everyone, and in the truest sense of the phrase too – not just a greeting but a statement of fact. Everything is possible and nothing is probable, save hours of intense joy at a time in human history when we need as much of it as we can get … if the rain allows it.
After what was surely a long night of the soul, Shubman Gill will be feeling something. After the elation of scoring a century in his first Test in charge, India failed to force home a position of strength after tea yesterday, taking too long to score too few such that should they lose today – scoring 835 runs across their two inningseseses – his decision-making will inevitably be criticised. No one will judge his tenure on the strength of this first match, but momentum is important, and going one down – after playing well, with four away Tests still to come – the pressure will feel enormous.
And what of Ben Stokes? It might just be that, over the last few days, we’ve witnessed the birth of Bazball 2.0, England retaining their aggressive intent but tempering it with the curious concept of context. A year ago, we’d never have seen their quicks bowling to fields featuring no slips, just as we’d absolutely have seen the openers thrashing at this target from the off. But ultimately, for all the inspiration and affirmation of the Testvangelist way of life, there’s nothing either inspirational or affirming about losing all the bloody time. England gave the game a kick up the arse, the game has since given them one back, and both should be the better for it.
Gosh, that’s a lot of words without mentioning Jasprit Bumrah, isn’t it? Because much as sport taunts us into complicating it with thoughts of narrartive and meaning, things can simultaneously be very simple, and there’s a decent chance the best bowler in the world is just too good to be denied. This should be one of the better working days.
Play: 11am BST
