Betting the NBA Finals: Bets to make on Game 1

At last, the 2025 NBA Finals tip off tonight as the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Indiana Pacers at 8:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center.

The Thunder, fresh off a 68-14 regular season and a dominant playoff run led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, are overwhelming favorites, boasting the league’s best defense and a relentless pace. Their only test was a seven-game slugfest against the Denver Nuggets, but they’ve otherwise steamrolled opponents.

The Pacers, in their first Finals in 25 years, counter with a historic offense orchestrated by Tyrese Haliburton, thriving on precision and corner 3-pointers. This clash of small-market teams promises a high-speed, turnover-driven battle, with Oklahoma City’s suffocating defense facing Indiana’s multi-faceted attack.

Will Haliburton’s pick-and-roll wizardry continue? Will Indiana’s motion offense crack OKC’s armor, or will the Thunder’s depth and defensive tenacity overwhelm? The stage is set for a thrilling series opener that could be closer than the spread suggests.

Here are our analysts’ bets that stand out for the game.

Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET

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Bets for NBA Finals Game 1

Chet Holmgren over 9.5 rebounds (+110).

This is an excellent spot for Holmgren against a small Pacers team that ranks near the bottom of the league in rebounding. He cleared this line against Indiana earlier this season and, in the most recent matchup, he finished with eight rebounds in just 28 minutes. With only Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam as Indiana’s legitimate rebounders, I expect Holmgren to follow suit on Thursday. — Moody

Tyrese Haliburton under 31.5 points, rebounds and assists (-110).

Haliburton faces an Oklahoma City defense that finished first in defensive rating during the regular season, and that dominance has carried into the playoffs. The Thunder defend guards well with Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso and SGA all strong perimeter defenders who can make life difficult for Haliburton in Game 1. — Moody

Shai GIlgeous-Alexander over 40.5 total points and assists (-110).

Gilgeous-Alexander is the leading scorer in the NBA this season and the Pacers are susceptible to giving up big games to isolation players. This is the perfect storm for SGA. He torched the Pacers in both their matchups this season with at least 41 combined P+A in both games. — Snellings

Tyrese Haliburton under 2.5 turnovers (-140)

The Thunder defense is stifling and led the NBA in turnovers generated in both the regular season and the playoffs, but Haliburton is a player who rarely turns the ball over. Haliburton led the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio this season with a whopping 5.5 ratio, the only player in the league over 5. Fourth on that list was Mike Conley with a ratio of 4.2, and in five games against the Thunder, Conley never had more than 1 turnover in any game. This matches Haliburton’s history, as well. In two games against the Thunder this season, Haliburton only had one total turnover against 11 assists. — Snellings

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Projections and Injury Reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET

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Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Line: Pacers +9.5 (-110) | Thunder -9.5 (-110)
Money line: Pacers +320 | Thunder -425
Total: 230.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 4.8, straight up 66%, 226.1 total points.

Injury Report:
Pacers: Tony Bradley, (GTD – Hip); Jarace Walker, (OUT – Ankle); Isaiah Jackson, (OFS – Achilles)
Thunder: Nikola Topic, (OFS – Knee)