When Tatjana Maria lined up for qualifying, she was sitting at No. 86 in the PIF WTA Rankings and looking for her first victory in more than two months.
With a win in Sunday’s HSBC Championships final, she’ll cap a seven-match surge in just nine days — and cut her ranking in half, climbing to No. 43, just one spot shy of her career high.
It will be a difficult task, for she faces ascendant Amanda Anisimova, at a career-high ranking (No. 15) herself. A year ago, Anisimova, the No. 8 seed, was in the early stages of a comeback at No. 190.
HSBC Championships final: Sunday, 1:30 p.m. local (8:30 a.m. ET)
Maria has already taken down three top seeds at Queen’s Club — No. 6 Karolina Muchova in the fourth round, No. 4 Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinal and, on Saturday, No. 2 Madison Keys in a 6-3, 7-6 (3) masterclass on grass.
Even Maria herself seemed to struggle with what she had accomplished.
“Yeah, it feels amazing,” Maria said afterward. “I try to come down and to realize that I’m really in the final here.”
Really. Anisimova, after defeating top-seeded Zheng Qinwen in three sets, looked similarly amazed as she fell to the ground, head in hands. She’ll be playing the first grass-court final of her career.
They’ve met only once, but that three-set win for Maria is largely irrelevant — it was played seven years ago on a Beijing hard court in the first round of qualifying.
We make the case for each finalist:
Advantage, Anisimova
There were moments in the third set against Zheng when Anisimova seemed on the brink of reverting to pre-comeback Anisimova. There were slumped shoulders, frowns and a few eye rolls — the body language of fading confidence.
Serving at 2-3, Anisimova double-faulted to give Zheng a break point — but followed it up with a huge backhand. She eventually saved three break points in a harrowing 15-point game and broke Zheng in the decisive seventh game.
This is the kind of performance Anisimova hoped for when she came back after shutting down her 2023 season after a Madrid loss in late April. After winning her biggest title to date, the Doha 1000 back in February, she credited her new attitude for the breakthrough.
“I think a lot of work on the mental side, honestly,” Anisimova said. “I’ve been doing a really great job of that. Yeah, trying to enjoy the journey, the process, all the hours on the court, training.
“Honestly, I think that the biggest asset this week that helped me win the title was my composure. Staying calm and believing in myself. When I get down on myself, I lose my focus when things start to go the other way. I was just happy I kept it together.”
Keeping it together will be a challenge against Maria, but Anisimova is up to it. Like Maria, she defeated her semifinal opponent for the first time. And with back-to-back wins over Emma Navarro and Zheng, she’s beaten a pair of Top 10 players. She’s getting close to that level; a win would send her to No. 12 on Monday.
The second serve, as usual, could prove pivotal. Maria lost 15 of 27 second offerings against Keys, while Anisimova was stronger, winning 22 of 42 second serves.
Anisimova has an affinity for grass, too. Though it’s a small sample, her winning percentage is best on the slippery surface. She handles those low bounces aggressively. She won’t change her game for Maria.
“This is a huge confidence-booster for me,” Anisimova said after advancing to the final. “Just feeling really good on the ground so far.
“[Maria’s] been playing some really great tennis out there. For sure, she plays some tricky tennis on the grass and I’m sure it’s going to be a tough battle out there.”
Advantage, Maria
It’s been a joy to watch Maria carve her way through the stout breezes at Queen’s Club, neutralizing the bigger hitters with sliced, short balls — and serving the lights out. Against Keys, Maria had five aces, no double faults and won 42 of her 47 first-serve points — 89 percent.
She leads the tournament with 26 aces overall and has won 77.5 percent of her first-serve points. This is the grass-mode style she’ll need to beat Anisimova, crafty, clever stuff from start to finish.
Maria has never been past the second round of a major — except at Wimbledon, where she blew into the semifinals three years ago at the age of 34. Grass is the only surface on which Maria has a winning record and she’s the oldest finalist ever in a WTA 500 event.
“I came here to this tournament,” she said, “I was in the qualifying, and I really told myself, ‘OK, you have to go round by round. You have to get this feeling back playing on grass.’
“Every match was getting better. I mean, now I’m in the final, so I’m really, really pleased with my performance.”
Consider the quality of what Maria has done: She beat Rybakina, who at 19-3 has the best winning percentage at Wimbledon among current players. She followed that up with a victory over Keys, owner of the best record among Top 10 players on grass. After three career losses to Keys, Maria emerged with her first win.
Less than two months from her 38th birthday, Maria will be playing with a healthy sense of urgency. Her daughters, Charlotte and Cecilia — 11 and four, respectively — are old enough to begin to understand what their mother has achieved. Maria is intent on giving the family another moment to remember.
