Carlos Alcaraz avoided a first-round scare, needing five sets to get past Fabio Fognini. Since then, he has made things far easier on himself, beating Oliver Tarvet in straight sets in the second round and then defeating Jan-Lennard Struff in four sets in the second round.
Now, the No. 2 seed will face his first-seeded opponent of the tournament when he meets No. 14 Andrey Rublev in the third round.
Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets for this Sunday showdown.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Moneyline
Total Games
Andrey Rublev is one win away from matching his career best finish at Wimbledon, which was a quarterfinals appearance in 2023. He’s now made the quarterfinals in all four Grand Slams a combined total of 10 times, but has yet to make it to a semifinal.
His path to the fourth round this year came through Laslo Djere, Lloyd Harris, and Adrian Mannarino. He defeated all three opponents in four sets or fewer.
Carlos Alcaraz is the back-to-back defending champion at Wimbledon, winning in both 2023 and 2024.
His bid for a three-peat almost ended in disaster when he found himself tied 2-2 with Fogini in the first round, but he went on to win the final set 6-1. After that close win, Alcaraz defeated Tarvet in straight sets and then Struff in four sets.
Alcaraz is once again set as a massive favorite. At -1200 odds, he has an implied probability of 92.31% of winning the match and advancing to the quarterfinals.
These two players have faced each other three times, with Alcaraz going 2-1 in those matches. Rublev managed to beat Alcaraz in 2024 at the ATP Masters 1000 Madrid. This will be the first time these two will face each other on grass.
I have no doubt Alcaraz will win this match, but for those of you who don’t want to lay the -1200 price tag on the back-to-back defending champion, I have a different bet I love for this match. We can bet on Rublev to win at least one set at -115 odds, meaning even if Alcaraz wins the match 3-1, our bet would cash.
Rublev has already defeated Alcaraz once, and the Spaniard has given up at least one set to two of his three opponents in this tournament, both of whom were far inferior players compared to Rublev. Let’s see if the Russian can squeak out at least one set on Sunday.
Pick: Rublev to Win At Least One Set (-115) via DraftKings
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!
