Italy vs Moldova predictions for their World Cup qualifier meeting on 10th June 2025, featuring excellent value on Moldova to offer resistance.
Our betting expert expects a high-scoring match and for the hosts to come out on top in Reggio Emilia.
Best Bets for Italy vs Moldova
- Totals – over 2.5 goals 1.40 with Stake
- Winning margin – Italy to win by 3+ goals 1.48 with Stake
- Italy to win both halves – No 2.41 with Stake
We expect Italy to win 4-1.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Due to their involvement in the UEFA Nations League, Italy’s World Cup qualifying campaign only kicked off on Friday night against Norway. After failing to qualify for the last two editions in 2022 and 2018, the Azzurri are determined to avoid any slip-ups this time.
The Italians host Moldova in their first home qualifier at the Mapei Stadium on Monday night. They hope to have successfully navigated the threat of table-toppers Norway by then. Regardless of that result, three points are non-negotiable for them in this game.
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Italy can take encouragement from their 3-3 draw with Germany in March, although they ultimately lost 5-4 on aggregate and missed out on a Nations League semi-final spot. Luciano Spalletti’s men also went unbeaten in the previous WCQ cycle (four wins and four draws), which should give them confidence.
Having never reached the finals of a European or World tournament, Moldova face a huge challenge. They’ve already lost their opening two games, which has left them rooted to the foot of Group I’s standings.
Another defeat on Monday could all but seal their fate, with five more games left to play this year.
Predicted Lineups for Italy vs Moldova
Italy Expected Lineup: Donnarumma; Bastoni, Rugani, Gatti; Udogie, Tonali, Ricci, Barella, Dimarco; Maldini, Retegui
Moldova Expected Lineup: Kozhukhar; Posmac, Craciun, Baboglo, Reabciuk; Moțpan, Rață; Postolachi, Caimacov, Bodișteanu; Nicolaescu
Attacking prowess coupled with defensive frailties
Italy have been prolific in front of goal lately. They’ve netted 10 goals in their last five outings, averaging two goals per game. Four of their previous five internationals saw more than two goals scored overall.
Considering their attacking prowess and the potential return of Serie A top scorer Mateo Retegui, who missed the last two games, the home side appear well-equipped upfront. They should be able to break down the visiting defence without much trouble.
Defensively, however, Spalletti’s troops have been vulnerable. They have conceded nine times over their last five matches. This defensive frailty could give Moldova some encouragement and confidence.
Four of the last five meetings between these nations featured over two goals, including their most recent clash in 2020. Meanwhile, both of the visitors’ opening games in this competition ended with more than two goals being scored on the day.
Explore these goal-friendly trends across online betting sites, where you can compare the most competitive over 2.5 goals odds from multiple bookmakers.
- Italy vs Moldova Betting Tip 1: Totals – over 2.5 goals 1.40 with Stake
Italy’s firepower fuels goal fest
Italy demonstrated their attacking strength by scoring three unanswered goals in the second half against Germany. There’s a clear sign of what the Italian forward line can do. If Retegui’s goal-scoring record is anything to go by, we’re in for a goal fest.
He scored 25 goals in the league, six more than his nearest competitor and has been directly involved in three of his last six international appearances (two goals, one assist). The Azzurri have shown how prolific they can be against weaker opposition. They’ve smashed four past Israel in the Nations League, who also happen to feature in their qualification group.
The hosts will be encouraged by Moldova’s defensive struggles. They conceded three goals against Estonia the last time out and a whopping five to Norway. The last meeting between these sides saw the Italians dominate with a 6-0 victory.
Monday’s game could follow a similar pattern, especially given Moldova’s poor away record of two wins in their last 10 (four losses, four draws).
- Italy vs Moldova Betting Tip 2: Winning margin – Italy to win by 3+ goals 1.48 with Stake
It’s not all one-way traffic
Despite Moldova’s poor results in recent months, they have a decent enough team to cause Italy some issues. The Tricolours won’t go down without a fight. They’ve shown their resilience in three of their last four matches where they’ve managed to win at least one half.
All four of Italy’s recent outings, except their visit to Norway, produced results where the opposition made things difficult. The hosts haven’t won both halves in any of those matches, with their last two-half domination coming against Israel.
Moldova could potentially avoid defeat in one or both halves, whether Italy start slowly or get off to a fast start but ease up in the second half.
Italy have failed to win both halves against this opposition in their last two competitive meetings. This is likely to happen again on Monday night, especially considering the internal issues involving veteran defender Francesco Acerbi and the Italian leadership, as well as the injury to Matteo Gabbia.
- Italy vs Moldova Betting Tip 3: Italy to win both halves – No 2.41 with Stake
