Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for day six of Wimbledon 2025.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon day six
1pt Lorenzo Sonego to beat Brandon Nakashima at 9/5 (Paddy Power, BetVictor)
1pt Marin Cilic & Jakub Mensik both to win at 1.58/1 (General)
1pt Elisabetta Cocciaretto to beat Belinda Bencic at 7/5 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Brandon Nakashima v Lorenzo Sonego
To put it bluntly, Sonego is too big here at 9/5.
I’ve written about Nakashima’s strong serving in the past but that’s also coupled with a relatively poor return game (13% breaks on grass heading into Wimbledon) and I think he may struggle with that aspect here.
When these two met in Hong Kong earlier this season, Sonego won in straight sets without facing a break point.
The Italian has served well across the first two rounds here, too, being broken only twice in matches with Jaime Faria and Nikoloz Basilashvili.
A notable stat is his second-serve points won which stands at 65%. I’d suggest that if Nakashima can’t make inroads into that number, he’s in trouble.
Sonego knows his way around a grasscourt – he’s won on the TP Tour on this surface and has reached the Eastbourne final and the last 16 of Wimbledon in the past.
I’m not sure he’s being given the respect he deserves here and will back him accordingly.
Marin Cilic v Jaume Munar
It’s been easy to forget in recent years that Cilic is a former US Open champion and a one-time Wimbledon finalist.
He reminded us all of his ability on Thursday when taking down fourth seed Jack Draper with a display that rolled back the years – and gave this column a 7/1 winner.
The serve was an expected weapon, while the forehand was a throwback to that stunning US Open streak of 2014. Notable was how he forced Draper back with his consistent depth.
Munar has played well on grass in recent weeks, beating Alexander Bublik here and pushing Carlos Alcaraz all the way at Queen’s Club.
However, Cilic, who has built on a Challenger Tour title win in Nottingham recently, should be too good if he continues in a similar vein and I’m surprised he’s not shorter than 8/13.
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Flavio Cobolli v Jakub Mensik
Cilic v Munar on grass just looks like a match-up the Croat should win and I’m thinking along similar lines here with Mensik a worthy favourite.
His games stacks up better on the slicker surface, with his bigger weapons likely to gain greater cut-through.
The Czech, who won the pair’s only previous meeting in straight sets, has beaten a couple of decent foes so far at this tournament in Hugo Gaston and Marcos Giron.
I’m not sure the same can be said of Cobolli. He may not have lost a set so far but the fact is he’s faced qualifier Beibit Zhukayev and wild card Jack Pinnington Jones, both of whom are ranked outside the world’s top 200.
This is a huge step up in class with Mensik having won at Masters 1000 level in Miami only a few months ago.
Again, I expected Mensik to be shorter than 8/13 and am happy to put him in what looks a value double with Cilic which pays around 8/5.
Belinda Bencic v Elisabetta Cocciaretto
In the women’s draw on Friday, Cocciaretto looks a value play.
The Italian isn’t a player I expected to make a big impact in this field but she certainly has done, taking out third seed Jessica Pegula in round one before cruising past Katie Volynets.
She has lost only nine games to get to this stage and looks to be striking the ball superbly well.
She arrived here buoyed by a semi-final run on the grass of Den Bosch and while she lost in round one in Eastbourne, she did win a couple of qualifiers on the south coast and definitely is in the winning groove right now.
The same cannot be said of Bencic, who is just 6-6 across her last 12 matches, a period which has seen her struggling with an arm injury.
The former Olympic champion has suffered some heavy losses in that time, including a 6-1 6-2 defeat to Ekaterina Alexandrova in Bad Homburg only last week.
Bencic needed three sets to see off qualifier Elsa Jacquemot in the last round and looks vulnerable here as an odds-on favourite.
Posted at 1600 BST on 04/07/25
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