Wide receiver is a stacked position. However, two receivers stand out as poor fantasy football investments at their respective average draft position (ADP) in half-point per reception (half PPR) formats this season. The first wide receiver was once one of the NFL’s best, but is a lousy investment at an ADP in the third round of 12-team leagues. The other is selected in the fourth round, attached to a quarterback who hasn’t proven anything in the pros in an offense that replaced a wideout on the wrong side of 30 years old with two new additions to the team’s pass-catching corps.
Overvalued Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Avoid
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): 32.0 ADP/WR18
Father Time is undefeated, and the clock might finally strike midnight on 31-year-old Tyreek Hill. According to Pro Football Reference, last season, Hill had his fewest receiving yards per game (56.4) since his rookie season, his fewest receptions per game (4.8) since tallying the same number in 2019, which was tied for the second-fewest of his career. Hill’s 7.8 yards per target were also tied for the second-fewest of his career, and his six touchdowns in 2024 were the fewest of his career.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hill’s 1.75 yards per route run (Y/RR) in 2024 were the fewest of his career, markedly lower than his second-lowest mark (2.14 Y/RR in 2021). The speedster’s 3.5 yards after the catch per reception were also the lowest of his career, lower than his previous career low of 4.2 in 2022. It’s suboptimal that Hill has had the three lowest yards after the catch marks of his career in the past four seasons. Hill was also inefficient on deep targets, reeling in only five of 19 targets that traveled at least 20 air yards.
Despite an underwhelming season by Hill’s standards, he was the WR21 in half PPR points (177.7) in 2024. Hill played in every game, inflating his ranking by total points. Hill was a much less impressive tied for WR31 in half PPR points per game (10.5) among wideouts who played more than four games last year. Hill’s optimists will point out that injuries to Tua Tagovailoa hurt Hill’s production last year.
Tagovailoa played in Week 1, Week 2 and Week 8 through Week 15. Tua missed Week 3 through Week 7, Week 17 and Week 18. The following table has Hill’s splits in 2024 with stats from the data suite at Fantasy Points.
Hill would have ranked as the WR7 in half PPR points per game if his 15.0 expected half PPR points per game with Tagovailoa came to fruition over the course of the full 2024 season. However, his 12.6 actual half PPR points per game with Tua would have ranked as the WR17 among wideouts who played at least five games last season if tallied for the full season. So, there is some wiggle room between Hill’s ADP as the WR18 and how he played with Tua last year.
However, picking Hill at his ADP is essentially betting on a multi-leg parlay. The first leg is Tagovailoa staying healthy. Tua has played a full season of games once in his five-year career, so that’s already a flimsy leg right out of the gate. The second leg is Hill fighting off age-related skill erosion, which looks like another lousy bet based on his downward trend in yards after the catch per reception and his career-low for yards per route run last season. Betting on a speed-based receiver on the wrong side of 30 is generally an unappealing idea, and Hill already has red flags in his profile.
The legs of the parlay don’t end at two, either. Gamers who select Hill are also banking on Miami’s offensive line leading a competent rushing attack and keeping Tua upright and healthy. Terron Armstead was PFF’s highest-graded offensive lineman for the Dolphins in run and pass blocking last year, and he retired. Patrick Paul is expected to replace him after playing dreadfully last year as a rookie. Furthermore, even with Armstead last year, PFF ranked Miami 27th in run blocking and 20th in pass blocking. So, betting on the Dolphins blocking better is quite a leap of faith. Hill can fail to live up to his ADP because of his own doing or systemic failure in Miami’s offense. There are many better options around Hill’s ADP at multiple positions, whether chasing a high floor or a high ceiling.
DJ Moore (WR – CHI): 42.0 ADP/WR21
The first negative for DJ Moore’s 2025 outlook won’t surprise anyone who’s followed my offseason content. Caleb Williams was demonstrably dreadful last season, and his final collegiate season also had significant red flags, causing him to share dubious company for his final college season and his first professional season. Thus, Williams is a quarterback to avoid in fantasy football this year.
Moore was the WR16 in half PPR points (189.1) and the WR30 in half PPR points per game (11.1) among those who played more than four games last season. His total points benefited from injury attrition at the position and his ability to stay healthy. Yet, Moore’s WR30 finish in half PPR points per game in 2024 is alarming for his WR21 ADP.
Moore had his best professional season in 2023, finishing as the WR6 in half PPR total points (238.5) and WR10 in half PPR points per game (14). He benefited immensely from being the top dog in an underwhelming receiving corps in 2023.
Moore should face more target competition on this year’s Bears squad than the 2023 version. Rome Odunze is in his second season after the Bears used a top-10 pick on him in the 2023 NFL Draft and have offset Keenan Allen sitting in free agency by spending their first-round pick on tight end Colston Loveland and an early second-round pick (39th overall) on wide receiver Luther Burden in this year’s NFL Draft. Cole Kmet was second on the 2023 Bears in targets (90), receptions (73), receiving yards (719) and receiving touchdowns (six) in Moore’s career year. Kmet is still in the mix and likely Chicago’s fourth-best pass-catching weapon at best, sixth behind Moore, Odunze, Burden, Loveland and D’Andre Swift at worst and splitting the difference in some outcomes.
Moore’s fantasy ranks before 2023 were solid if unspectacular. From 2018 through 2022, he was the WR38 (129.5), WR18 (187), WR22 (178.5), WR19 (191) and WR22 (167.6) in half PPR total points. In his NFL career, Moore has missed only two games (one in 2019 and one in 2020). His ability to stay healthy is a plus. Yet, it has also inflated his finishes among wide receivers in total half PPR points.
Moore’s finishes in half PPR points per game among wideouts who’ve played at least four games in each respective season from 2018 through 2022 have been less impressive, with finishes of tied for WR53 (8.1), tied for WR18 (12.5), tied for WR21 (11.9) tied for WR28 (11.2) and WR33 (9.9). Moore’s track record suggests he could slightly outperform his WR21 ADP at best and fall significantly short of it at worst.
I’d also lean toward him performing at the low end of his range of outcomes after his forgettable 2024 season. Per PFF, Moore’s 1.44 Y/RR in 2024 were the fewest of his career, much lower than his 2.01 Y/RR from 2018 through 2023. Furthermore, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 115 wide receivers with at least 200 routes in the regular season and playoffs, Moore was 91st in yards per target (7.00), 104th in yards per reception (9.86), 62nd in yards per route run (1.53) and tied for 48th in expected half PPR points per route run (0.40). Astute readers might notice that Fantasy Points awarded Moore more yards per route run than PFF, based on what each outlet classified as a route. Still, even with Fantasy Points’ more favorable mark, Moore was below average. Moore must play better, and his quarterback must play competently for the veteran wideout to provide value commensurate with his WR21 ADP, and neither is a bet I want to make.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
